Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.399668 1.590568 1.794179 2.027086 2.285696 2.563597 2.884373
2024-12-22 1.137610 1.394531 1.686285 2.040563 2.457470 2.930771 3.506943
2024-12-29 0.985408 1.295836 1.669208 2.147669 2.740430 3.446331 4.345762
2025-01-05 0.798469 1.128234 1.548635 2.117023 2.857576 3.781096 5.009984
2025-01-12 0.663621 1.006714 1.469724 2.128836 3.029532 4.202123 5.826024
2025-01-19 0.545696 0.889627 1.381031 2.117069 3.170576 4.599803 6.655375
2025-01-26 0.473314 0.826309 1.358484 2.194039 3.441631 5.198161 7.810987
2025-02-02 0.407420 0.761925 1.325674 2.252593 3.694286 5.797267 9.026499
2025-02-09 0.345489 0.692947 1.275981 2.279474 3.903872 6.355896 10.237475
2025-02-16 0.295125 0.634479 1.234707 2.314493 4.130277 6.961157 11.571768
2025-02-23 0.241312 0.558710 1.152203 2.270129 4.225065 7.374511 12.652924
2025-03-02 0.190521 0.477404 1.046187 2.169919 4.215284 7.621611 13.496779
2025-03-09 0.159181 0.430967 1.001183 2.180070 4.408050 8.234674 15.011503
2025-03-16 0.130164 0.382261 0.943130 2.157732 4.541921 8.764756 16.441369
2025-03-23 0.114153 0.360470 0.937531 2.238536 4.876746 9.673190 18.586814
2025-03-30 0.091215 0.314165 0.869333 2.181016 4.942230 10.113915 19.967232
2025-04-06 0.075321 0.281924 0.826868 2.171731 5.101712 10.740016 21.726525
2025-04-13 0.061275 0.250154 0.778735 2.142111 5.216382 11.293354 23.399738
2025-04-20 0.053527 0.235519 0.771123 2.204768 5.531119 12.253295 25.889673
2025-04-27 0.046239 0.219779 0.757332 2.250745 5.815550 13.178429 28.382134
2025-05-04 0.039101 0.201691 0.732999 2.266837 6.035873 13.994574 30.725401
2025-05-11 0.033342 0.186465 0.713592 2.292613 6.281332 14.881757 33.268356
2025-05-18 0.026761 0.164519 0.668076 2.241184 6.340421 15.387810 35.094637